This 2007 chart from Energy Watch Group reflects the Peak Oil case. It projected less than 3 million barrels a day of domestic oil production by 2030, compared with today's consumption of 19mbd. It also forecast that tar sands would make up half of domestic North American production by 2030.
In 2011, domestic production of crude oil was 5.6 million barrels per day. "Liquids" (such as corn ethanol and natural gas liquids) make up another 3 million barrels per day. From the Energy Watch's 2007 graph, it appears that domestic production was estimated at about 5 million barrels per day in 2011. Instead of falling, however, domestic crude oil will rise another 700,000 barrels a day by 2013. Score one for the Cornucopians.
Canadian production was 2.9 mbd (including the oil sands) in 2010. Even bullish projections for tar sands do not go much beyond 5mbd by 2030. Cambridge Energy Research Associates now says 4.8 mbd in 2030.
3/15/12
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