Iraq's Potential

From the Wall Street Journal, March 1, 2011:

Right now, Iraq produces about 2.7 million barrels a day, or just 3% of global supply. But its growth potential is enormous. The International Energy Agency puts Iraq second only to Saudi Arabia in terms of increased oil output by 2035, with Iraq producing another 4.3 million barrels a day by then.

That may be conservative. Contracts awarded to foreign oil companies aim to boost Iraqi output from existing fields to more than 11 million barrels daily. Even if that is too ambitious, consultancy JBC Energy expects output to hit almost eight million daily barrels by 2020, 67% higher than the IEA's forecast for that year. In contrast, the IEA saw Libyan output remaining flat even before the current crisis began.