November 2, 2008

US Oil Gap to 2025

We saw a version of this before, charting the ever growing gap between US consumption and US production. The best thing about this one is not its prediction of the future but how nicely it shows the sharp fall in consumption that occurred in the 1970s.

It's difficult to escape the conclusion that we'll get something like that again. The gap between domestic production and consumption will narrow over the next few years as part of the fallout from the "vortex of debility" into which world markets have fallen. Oil consumption has already declined from a high of some 20.5 mbd to a little over 19mbd, as I recall the latest figures.

The challenge for policy? To ensure that the gap does not, when recovery comes, resume its upward march.

Here's a Simmons chart showing the effect of the larger economy on demand for oil.

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