May 19, 2011

Arctic Sea Ice Fails at Resistance

As noted by Arctic Sea Ice blog, the anomaly trend line in the graph below, dated May 2, 2011, seems to have dipped below 2 standard deviations again.

In stock market lingo, you could say that Arctic Sea Ice has failed at resistance, and seems likely to test last year's lows.

Also from Climate Progress:
Wieslaw Maslowski of the Naval Postgraduate School has “projected a (virtually) ice-free fall by 2016 (+/- 3 yrs).” Contrary to some reporting, that projection has been unchanged for years, though Maslowski is in the process of creating a more sophisticated model that he expects “will improve prediction of sea ice melt.”

Here is Maslowski's March 2010 presentation, "Advancements and Limitations in Understanding and Predicting Climate Change." 

His point of departure is that the observed state of ice extent loss is greater than forecast in global climate models: 

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